The Economic Institute (TEI) — Economic Analysis, Research & Education
Global Economics
View AllThe Strait of Hormuz Gamble: Why Trump's Naval Pledges Can't Calm Rattled Energy Markets
Washington's promise of naval escorts and insurance guarantees for Gulf shipping offers symbolic reassurance, but the economics of energy disruption are already doing their damage.
The Iran Escalation and America's Economic Tightrope
Trump's strikes on Iran have introduced a dangerous new variable into an already fragile US economic equation, and Washington has precious little room to absorb the shock.
Africa’s Currency Pressures Are Reshaping Trade, Debt Costs, and Growth Strategies
Several African economies are facing renewed currency depreciation and rising external borrowing costs. This article examines how these pressures affect imports, inflation, investment flows, and long term growth strategies, and why economic resilience depends on stronger regional integration and diversified production.
Inside Korea’s Business Confidence Rebound And What It Signals For Global Manufacturing
South Korea’s business confidence has turned positive for the first time in several years. This article examines the export drivers behind the rebound, the sector dynamics inside Korea, and how this shift fits into the broader story of global manufacturing.
Reading The Signals: What Slower US Business Activity Means For Growth And Policy
Recent US purchasing managers indices show business activity growing at the slowest pace in months. This article explains how to interpret the data, how it fits into the broader macro story, and what it could mean for employment, inflation, and Federal Reserve decisions.
A Guide To This Week’s Key Global Economic Releases
A cluster of inflation, growth, and activity data across major economies will shape market expectations for central banks. This article walks through the main releases, why they matter, and how they might influence policy and asset prices.
How Renewed US Tariff Talk Is Reshaping Global Market Sentiment
Global markets are increasingly sensitive to signals from US tariff and trade policy. This article explains why recent rhetoric and policy proposals are shaking confidence, how major economies are responding, and what this means for investors, firms, and households.
China’s Slowing Industrial Momentum and What It Means for Global Trade and Investment Flows
China’s Slowing Industrial Momentum and What It Means for Global Trade and Investment Flows
US Iran De escalation Talks and What They Mean for Oil, Inflation, and Global Markets
Diplomatic progress between the United States and Iran has eased geopolitical tensions and redirected global market sentiment. This article examines how a more stable Middle East outlook affects crude prices, inflation expectations, shipping security, and financial risk premiums across major economies.
Business
View AllAdidas, Stagflation, and the Consumer Confidence Illusion
Adidas posted double-digit growth in 2025, but its cautious 2026 forecast is a canary in the coal mine for global consumer spending under geopolitical and inflationary stress.
PhonePe's $10.5 Billion Bet: What India's Fintech IPO Boom Tells Us About the New Geography of Capital
As PhonePe eyes a $10.5 billion IPO valuation, its listing ambitions reveal how India's digital payments revolution is reshaping global investor calculus, and why emerging-market fintech is the decade's defining capital story.
How Rising Food Prices Are Reshaping Household Budgets and Local Business Decisions in Emerging Markets
Weaker currencies and supply chain pressures in several emerging economies have pushed food costs higher in February 2026. This article examines how rising food prices influence household consumption, small business pricing strategies, labour decisions, and overall microeconomic behaviour.
Price Elasticity Shifts in Essential Goods Markets
New evidence on how consumer sensitivity to price changes has evolved in post-inflationary markets.
Market Concentration Trends in the Pharmaceutical Sector
Analysing how mergers, patent cliffs, and regulatory barriers shape pricing power in drug markets.
Behavioural Nudges and Consumer Decision-Making Under Uncertainty
A review of field experiments on choice architecture and their policy implications.
Gig Economy Labour Markets and Worker Classification Economics
The economic trade-offs of contractor versus employee status in platform-mediated labour markets.
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Economic Policy
View AllThe Drug Pricing Paradox: Why American Patients Keep Paying More
Trump promised to slash prescription drug prices, but a tangle of Congressional incentives, pharmaceutical lobbying, and structural market failures is pushing costs in exactly the opposite direction.
Gen Z, AI, and the Experience Gap: Why the Youngest Workers Are Losing the Most
A Dallas Fed warning about AI's uneven impact on the labour market reveals a troubling generational fault line: the workers who stand to benefit most from a tech-driven future are the ones being hurt by it first.
Debt, Deficits And Spillovers: The IMF’s View On US Fiscal Policy
The International Monetary Fund is set to highlight the risks from persistent US budget deficits and rising debt. This article explains why US fiscal choices matter globally and what a credible adjustment path could look like.
How India’s Tax And Data Rules Are Redrawing The Map For Global Digital Platforms
India is tightening the tax and regulatory framework for foreign digital firms while integrating central bank digital currency into its tax code. This article explains what is changing, why it matters and how it fits into the global push to regulate the digital economy.
From Stagnation To Stabilization: Understanding Germany’s Business Sentiment Turnaround
German business surveys point to an improvement in sentiment after a long period of weakness. This article explores the structural challenges in Europe’s largest economy, the sectors driving the shift, and what this means for the euro area outlook.
The New Central Bank Problem: Why “On Hold” Policies Still Create Market Volatility
Even when central banks keep rates steady, markets can react sharply to subtle changes in tone, leadership speculation, and communication gaps. This article explores why “no move” decisions by major central banks still unsettle investors, and how credibility, expectations, and narrative shifts have become critical macroeconomic variables.
Japan’s Rising Debt Costs: How Higher Issuance and Interest Burdens Are Reshaping Fiscal Policy
As borrowing needs rise and market yields become more sensitive to global conditions, Japan is entering a new era of fiscal pressure. Higher debt-servicing costs, record issuance plans, and demographic headwinds are forcing policymakers to confront difficult trade-offs between stability, growth, and fiscal credibility.
Post-Brexit Trade Frictions: The Economic Cost of Delayed Digital Borders
The promise of frictionless trade after Brexit depended heavily on digital border systems that would streamline customs, reduce paperwork, and limit delays. As modernization efforts stall, the economic consequences are becoming clearer. This analysis examines how delays in digital border infrastructure in the United Kingdom are affecting trade flows, business investment, and long-term competitiveness.
Mozambique’s Debt Challenge: Fiscal Consolidation, IMF Pressure, and Market Confidence
Rising financing pressures, limited domestic borrowing capacity, and external debt constraints have pushed Mozambique into a delicate fiscal moment. With scrutiny from the International Monetary Fund intensifying, the country’s path forward illustrates the broader debt sustainability dilemma facing frontier markets.
Data & Indicators
Explore All DataUS GDP Growth
2.4%
Eurozone Inflation
2.1%
US Unemployment
3.7%
Global Trade Volume
+1.8%
US Consumer Price Index Update
Core CPI continues to moderate, supporting Federal Reserve projections.
14 February 2026
European Manufacturing PMI
Purchasing managers index signals cautious expansion in Q1.
13 February 2026
Emerging Market Capital Flows
Net inflows recover to pre-2024 levels across key markets.
12 February 2026
TEI Insights
Quick economic commentary in under 2 minutes
Latest Research
View Research ArchiveCompute as Capital: Measuring the Macroeconomic Impact of Frontier AI Compute Constraints
10 June 2025
Research PaperSystematic Risk, Liquidity Premia, and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns: A Unified Factor Framework
15 March 2025
Research PaperIndia's Economic Liberalization and Structural Transformation
20 January 2025
The Global Economic Brief
Weekly analysis of macroeconomic trends, policy developments, and institutional research.