The Economic Institute (TEI) — Economic Analysis, Research & Education
How Renewed US Tariff Talk Is Reshaping Global Market Sentiment
Global markets are increasingly sensitive to signals from US tariff and trade policy. This article explains why recent rhetoric and policy proposals are shaking confidence, how major economies are responding, and what this means for investors, firms, and households.
Inside Korea’s Business Confidence Rebound And What It Signals For Global Manufacturing
From Stagnation To Stabilization: Understanding Germany’s Business Sentiment Turnaround
Reading The Signals: What Slower US Business Activity Means For Growth And Policy
Macroeconomics
View AllInside Korea’s Business Confidence Rebound And What It Signals For Global Manufacturing
South Korea’s business confidence has turned positive for the first time in several years. This article examines the export drivers behind the rebound, the sector dynamics inside Korea, and how this shift fits into the broader story of global manufacturing.
Reading The Signals: What Slower US Business Activity Means For Growth And Policy
Recent US purchasing managers indices show business activity growing at the slowest pace in months. This article explains how to interpret the data, how it fits into the broader macro story, and what it could mean for employment, inflation, and Federal Reserve decisions.
ECB Leadership Uncertainty: Why Markets React Even When Interest Rates Don’t Move
Speculation around potential leadership changes at the European Central Bank has unsettled markets, even as policy rates remain firmly on hold. This article explores why institutional uncertainty affects currency movements, bond markets, and investor confidence — and why central bank credibility is often as important as the policy rate itself.
UK Inflation Falls to a One-Year Low: What It Means for Mortgage Rates, Wages, and the Bank of England
Inflation in the United Kingdom has fallen to its lowest level in nearly a year, easing pressure on households and shifting expectations for the next move from the Bank of England. But beneath the headline decline, deeper questions remain about wage persistence, services inflation, and how quickly mortgage costs could adjust.
Will Artificial Intelligence Reduce Inflation or Reshape It?
Artificial intelligence is often described as inherently disinflationary, a productivity revolution that will lower costs and stabilize prices. The reality is more complex. AI could reduce structural inflation in some sectors while intensifying demand, capital spending, and wage polarization in others. This analysis examines how AI interacts with productivity, labor markets, corporate pricing power, and long-term interest rates.
Inflation Uncertainty: How Central Banks Set Interest Rates When the Data Is Incomplete
When inflation data is delayed, distorted, or missing, monetary policy does not pause. It adapts. This deep dive explains how central banks build “shadow inflation” signals using nowcasts, high-frequency proxies, and risk-management frameworks, and why markets can misprice the path of rates when the official numbers lie.
Consumer Spending Resilience and Savings Rate Dynamics
How household balance sheets and shifting savings behaviour are sustaining demand despite higher borrowing costs.
Inflation Persistence and Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanisms
A framework for understanding why inflation remains above target despite aggressive tightening cycles.
Labour Market Dynamics in Post-Pandemic Recovery
Structural shifts in employment patterns and their implications for potential output and wage growth.
Global Economics
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Africa’s Currency Pressures Are Reshaping Trade, Debt Costs, and Growth Strategies
Several African economies are facing renewed currency depreciation and rising external borrowing costs. This article examines how these pressures affect imports, inflation, investment flows, and long term growth strategies, and why economic resilience depends on stronger regional integration and diversified production.
A Guide To This Week’s Key Global Economic Releases
A cluster of inflation, growth, and activity data across major economies will shape market expectations for central banks. This article walks through the main releases, why they matter, and how they might influence policy and asset prices.
How Renewed US Tariff Talk Is Reshaping Global Market Sentiment
Global markets are increasingly sensitive to signals from US tariff and trade policy. This article explains why recent rhetoric and policy proposals are shaking confidence, how major economies are responding, and what this means for investors, firms, and households.
China’s Slowing Industrial Momentum and What It Means for Global Trade and Investment Flows
China’s Slowing Industrial Momentum and What It Means for Global Trade and Investment Flows
US Iran De escalation Talks and What They Mean for Oil, Inflation, and Global Markets
Diplomatic progress between the United States and Iran has eased geopolitical tensions and redirected global market sentiment. This article examines how a more stable Middle East outlook affects crude prices, inflation expectations, shipping security, and financial risk premiums across major economies.
Japan’s Export Surge: Strong Overseas Demand Meets Rising Domestic Risks
Japan’s exports have jumped sharply on the back of strong Asian demand, lifting sentiment and supporting growth. Yet beneath the optimism are structural vulnerabilities — from fragile domestic consumption to fiscal pressures and industrial concentration — that complicate the outlook. This article examines how Japan’s export boom fits into the broader macroeconomic picture and what risks policymakers must navigate next.
Asia’s Record Crude Imports Are Rewriting the Global Oil Map
Asia is now importing crude oil at record levels, reshaping global trade routes, shifting strategic alliances, and altering the balance of power among major producers. This article examines how rising demand in the region is transforming supply chains, why geopolitical realignment among exporters matters, and what this means for future energy security.
The Return of Industrial Policy: How Trade Strategy Is Redrawing Global Supply Chains
Industrial policy is no longer a theoretical debate. It is actively reshaping global trade, semiconductor production, and strategic manufacturing. From subsidy frameworks to tariff leverage, governments are using trade tools to reengineer supply chains. This analysis examines how the United States, Europe, and Asia are deploying industrial policy, and what it means for global competitiveness and long-term growth.
Oil Prices and Geopolitics: How US Iran Diplomacy Is Moving Energy Markets
Oil markets are no longer driven by supply and demand fundamentals alone. Diplomatic signals, sanctions risk, and shipping disruptions now shape price expectations as much as inventory data. This analysis explores how negotiations between the United States and Iran are influencing crude prices, global growth expectations, and financial markets.
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Policy & Regulation
View AllFrom Stagnation To Stabilization: Understanding Germany’s Business Sentiment Turnaround
German business surveys point to an improvement in sentiment after a long period of weakness. This article explores the structural challenges in Europe’s largest economy, the sectors driving the shift, and what this means for the euro area outlook.
The New Central Bank Problem: Why “On Hold” Policies Still Create Market Volatility
Even when central banks keep rates steady, markets can react sharply to subtle changes in tone, leadership speculation, and communication gaps. This article explores why “no move” decisions by major central banks still unsettle investors — and how credibility, expectations, and narrative shifts have become critical macroeconomic variables.
Japan’s Rising Debt Costs: How Higher Issuance and Interest Burdens Are Reshaping Fiscal Policy
As borrowing needs rise and market yields become more sensitive to global conditions, Japan is entering a new era of fiscal pressure. Higher debt-servicing costs, record issuance plans, and demographic headwinds are forcing policymakers to confront difficult trade-offs between stability, growth, and fiscal credibility.
Post-Brexit Trade Frictions: The Economic Cost of Delayed Digital Borders
The promise of frictionless trade after Brexit depended heavily on digital border systems that would streamline customs, reduce paperwork, and limit delays. As modernization efforts stall, the economic consequences are becoming clearer. This analysis examines how delays in digital border infrastructure in the United Kingdom are affecting trade flows, business investment, and long-term competitiveness.
Mozambique’s Debt Challenge: Fiscal Consolidation, IMF Pressure, and Market Confidence
Rising financing pressures, limited domestic borrowing capacity, and external debt constraints have pushed Mozambique into a delicate fiscal moment. With scrutiny from the International Monetary Fund intensifying, the country’s path forward illustrates the broader debt sustainability dilemma facing frontier markets.
Competition Policy in the Age of Digital Platforms
How antitrust frameworks are adapting to address market power in platform economies. Regulatory approaches across jurisdictions reveal divergent strategies.
Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms and Trade Equity
Assessing whether carbon tariffs achieve climate goals without disproportionately harming developing economies.
Central Bank Digital Currency Regulation: A Comparative Framework
Mapping the regulatory approaches to retail CBDC across 20 jurisdictions and their design trade-offs.
Data & Indicators
Explore All DataUS GDP Growth
2.4%
Eurozone Inflation
2.1%
US Unemployment
3.7%
Global Trade Volume
+1.8%
US Consumer Price Index Update
Core CPI continues to moderate, supporting Federal Reserve projections.
14 February 2026
European Manufacturing PMI
Purchasing managers index signals cautious expansion in Q1.
13 February 2026
Emerging Market Capital Flows
Net inflows recover to pre-2024 levels across key markets.
12 February 2026
Latest Research
View Research Archive
Systematic Risk, Liquidity Premia, and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns: A Unified Factor Framework
24 February 2026
India's Economic Liberalization and Structural Transformation, 1991 to 2024
24 February 2026
Industrial Policy and Economic Transformation: A Comprehensive Case Study of South Korea, 1961 to 2024
24 February 2026
The Global Economic Brief
Weekly analysis of macroeconomic trends, policy developments, and institutional research.