Articles
In-depth economic analysis across macroeconomics, global economics, policy, markets, technology, and development.
Oil Market Volatility: Pricing Geopolitical Risk in Real Time
Oil markets are increasingly driven by geopolitical probabilities rather than immediate supply changes. Diplomatic signals, sanctions risk, and strategic chokepoints now move futures curves before physical flows shift. This analysis explains how investors price geopolitical risk, how volatility propagates across asset classes, and why scenario discipline matters more than narrative reaction.
Mozambique’s Debt Challenge: Fiscal Consolidation, IMF Pressure, and Market Confidence
Rising financing pressures, limited domestic borrowing capacity, and external debt constraints have pushed Mozambique into a delicate fiscal moment. With scrutiny from the International Monetary Fund intensifying, the country’s path forward illustrates the broader debt sustainability dilemma facing frontier markets.
Post-Brexit Trade Frictions: The Economic Cost of Delayed Digital Borders
The promise of frictionless trade after Brexit depended heavily on digital border systems that would streamline customs, reduce paperwork, and limit delays. As modernization efforts stall, the economic consequences are becoming clearer. This analysis examines how delays in digital border infrastructure in the United Kingdom are affecting trade flows, business investment, and long-term competitiveness.
The Return of Industrial Policy: How Trade Strategy Is Redrawing Global Supply Chains
Industrial policy is no longer a theoretical debate. It is actively reshaping global trade, semiconductor production, and strategic manufacturing. From subsidy frameworks to tariff leverage, governments are using trade tools to reengineer supply chains. This analysis examines how the United States, Europe, and Asia are deploying industrial policy, and what it means for global competitiveness and long-term growth.
Will Artificial Intelligence Reduce Inflation or Reshape It?
Artificial intelligence is often described as inherently disinflationary, a productivity revolution that will lower costs and stabilize prices. The reality is more complex. AI could reduce structural inflation in some sectors while intensifying demand, capital spending, and wage polarization in others. This analysis examines how AI interacts with productivity, labor markets, corporate pricing power, and long-term interest rates.
Emerging Market Debt: Fundamentals, Dollar Cycles, and Sovereign Risk
Emerging market bonds often rally when global liquidity improves and the US dollar softens. But not every rally reflects structural reform or fiscal strength. This analysis examines whether recent performance in emerging market debt is driven by stronger fundamentals or by external monetary conditions, and what that means for sovereign risk assessment.
AI Export Controls and the New Tech Cold War
Artificial intelligence has become a strategic asset, and export controls on advanced chips are now instruments of economic statecraft. As the United States tightens restrictions on semiconductor exports to China, global supply chains, capital expenditure cycles, and innovation trajectories are being reshaped. This analysis explores how AI export controls function as a macroeconomic variable rather than a narrow trade tool.
Can Kenya’s Carbon Registry Restore Trust in Climate Markets?
Carbon markets have faced growing scrutiny over transparency, double counting, and questionable offsets. With the launch of a national registry, Kenya is seeking to strengthen credibility and attract climate finance. This article examines whether stronger governance infrastructure can transform carbon markets from reputational risk into a reliable development tool.
Oil Prices and Geopolitics: How US Iran Diplomacy Is Moving Energy Markets
Oil markets are no longer driven by supply and demand fundamentals alone. Diplomatic signals, sanctions risk, and shipping disruptions now shape price expectations as much as inventory data. This analysis explores how negotiations between the United States and Iran are influencing crude prices, global growth expectations, and financial markets.
Inflation Uncertainty: How Central Banks Set Interest Rates When the Data Is Incomplete
When inflation data is delayed, distorted, or missing, monetary policy does not pause. It adapts. This deep dive explains how central banks build “shadow inflation” signals using nowcasts, high-frequency proxies, and risk-management frameworks, and why markets can misprice the path of rates when the official numbers lie.
Fed Policy Outlook: Navigating the Final Mile of Disinflation
Analysis of the Federal Reserve's evolving stance as core inflation approaches but stubbornly resists the 2 percent target.
Price Elasticity Shifts in Essential Goods Markets
New evidence on how consumer sensitivity to price changes has evolved in post-inflationary markets.
European Central Bank Navigates Divergent Growth Paths
A comprehensive review of eurozone economic performance amid structural challenges and policy divergence.
Implications of Proposed Capital Requirements for Regional Banking
Evaluating the potential impact of Basel III endgame revisions on regional financial institutions.
Equity Market Valuations and Corporate Earnings Outlook for 2026
Are current multiples justified by forward earnings growth, or does the market face a correction risk?
Generative AI Productivity Gains: Early Evidence from Enterprise Adoption
What the first wave of corporate AI deployments reveals about productivity, labour substitution, and ROI.
Sub-Saharan Africa Growth Forecast and Investment Outlook
Assessing the continent's economic trajectory amid demographic dividends, debt pressures, and commodity dependence.
The Bretton Woods System at 80: Lessons for Modern Monetary Order
Revisiting the 1944 agreements and their relevance to current debates about international monetary reform.
Consumer Spending Resilience and Savings Rate Dynamics
How household balance sheets and shifting savings behaviour are sustaining demand despite higher borrowing costs.
Trade Fragmentation and the Reconfiguration of Global Supply Chains
Assessing the economic costs of geopolitical realignment on international trade flows and sourcing strategies.
Competition Policy in the Age of Digital Platforms
How antitrust frameworks are adapting to address market power in platform economies.
Private Credit Markets: Growth, Risks, and Systemic Implications
The rapid expansion of direct lending and its potential to create hidden leverage in the financial system.