Macroeconomics
GDP, inflation, monetary policy, fiscal policy, employment
Will Artificial Intelligence Reduce Inflation or Reshape It?
Artificial intelligence is often described as inherently disinflationary, a productivity revolution that will lower costs and stabilize prices. The reality is more complex. AI could reduce structural inflation in some sectors while intensifying demand, capital spending, and wage polarization in others. This analysis examines how AI interacts with productivity, labor markets, corporate pricing power, and long-term interest rates.
Inflation Uncertainty: How Central Banks Set Interest Rates When the Data Is Incomplete
When inflation data is delayed, distorted, or missing, monetary policy does not pause. It adapts. This deep dive explains how central banks build “shadow inflation” signals using nowcasts, high-frequency proxies, and risk-management frameworks, and why markets can misprice the path of rates when the official numbers lie.
Fed Policy Outlook: Navigating the Final Mile of Disinflation
Analysis of the Federal Reserve's evolving stance as core inflation approaches but stubbornly resists the 2 percent target.
Consumer Spending Resilience and Savings Rate Dynamics
How household balance sheets and shifting savings behaviour are sustaining demand despite higher borrowing costs.
Inflation Persistence and Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanisms
A framework for understanding why inflation remains above target despite aggressive tightening cycles.
Labour Market Dynamics in Post-Pandemic Recovery
Structural shifts in employment patterns and their implications for potential output and wage growth.
Fiscal Sustainability in Advanced Economies
Assessment of debt-to-GDP trajectories and long-term fiscal balance projections across the G7.
Yield Curve Dynamics and Recession Probability Models
Re-examining the predictive power of the yield curve in an era of unconventional monetary policy.
Housing Market Correction and Household Wealth Effects
Evaluating the macroeconomic impact of declining home values on consumer spending and credit conditions.
Central Bank Balance Sheet Normalisation: Progress and Pitfalls
How quantitative tightening is reshaping reserve management and money market dynamics.
Productivity Growth Puzzle in the Post-Pandemic Economy
Investigating the disconnect between technology investment surges and measured productivity outcomes.